Successful decoupling in Finland?

Abstract

Modern economies use resources in an unsustainable way. At the same time, mainstream policies see economic growth a necessity. These two facts have drawn attention to decoupling, i.e., the idea of detaching economic growth from increased environmental burden. For instance in Finland government ministers have recently argued for decoupling. We estimate the timeline and size of a “successful decoupling” for Finland: 2 percent annual GDP growth and a decline in global resource use by 2050 to a level that could be sustainable and compatible with a maximum 2°C global warming. In this estimate, compared to 2017, resource decoupling has to result in 6,6 times more GDP out of every ton of material use. Such a change is scarcely intelligible, let alone realistic. As current research literature does not offer evidence of the needed absolute resource decoupling, we conclude that adopting decoupling as a strategy towards ecological sustainability is very risky.