Has the Decoupling of Economic Growth and Environmental Pressures Been Successful? The Case of Finland

Abstract

We look at decoupling environmental pressures from economic growth first at a conceptual level and then empirically, focusing on Finland. First, we distinguish between different types of decoupling, analysing easier and more difficult forms. The absolute, long-term and sufficiently rapid economy-wide decoupling required for ecological sustainability is more challenging than the cases of decoupling a single pollutant or a single economic sector presented in the literature. Since different forms of decoupling are not necessarily (logically, materially) related, special care must be taken when presenting decoupling as a solution. In the empirical section, we consider, first, the decoupling of GDP from resource consumption, and second, the decoupling of GDP from greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of resource consumption, a decoupling possibly consistent with ecological sustainability would require that in 2050 the materials used would create 6.6 times more monetary value than in 2022, while the total material use would be about a quarter of what it is today. Similarly, for greenhouse gas emissions, successful decoupling would require a tripling of the current decoupling rate of net emissions. These results pose a serious challenge to economic and environmental policy approaches relying on the idea of decoupling.